Sains Malaysiana 44(9)(2015): 1363–1370

Statistical Analysis of Vehicle Theft Crime in Peninsular Malaysia using Negative Binomial Regression Model

(Analisis Statistik Jenayah Kecurian Kenderaan di Semenanjung Malaysia menerusi Model Regresi Binomial Negatif)

MALINA ZULKIFLI¹, AHMAD MAHIR RAZALI²*, NURULKAMAL MASSERAN² & NORISZURA ISMAIL²

¹School of Quantitative Sciences, College of Arts and Science, Universiti Utara Malaysia

06010 Sintok, Kedah Darul Aman, Malaysia

²School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

Received: 17 June 2014/Accepted: 20 May 2015

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper was to identify the determinants that influence vehicle theft by applying a negative binomial regression model. The identification of these determinants is very important to policy-makers, car-makers and car owners, as they can be used to establish practical steps for preventing or at least limiting vehicle thefts. In addition, this paper also proposed a crime mapping application that allows us to identify the most risky areas for vehicle theft. The results from this study can be utilized by local authorities as well as management of internal resource planning of insurance companies in planning effective strategies to reduce vehicle theft. Indirectly, this paper has built ingenuity by combining information obtained from the database of Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia and insurance companies to pioneer the development of location map of vehicle theft in Malaysia.

Keywords: Crime; mapping; negative binomial; spatial analysis; vehicle theft

ABSTRAK

Tujuan penulisan kertas ini adalah untuk mengenal pasti penentu yang mempengaruhi kecurian kenderaan dengan menggunakan model regresi binomial negatif. Pengenalpastian penentu ini penting kepada pembuat dasar, pembuat kereta dan pemilik kereta kerana maklumat ini boleh digunakan untuk mewujudkan langkah-langkah praktikal dalam mencegah atau sekurang-kurangnya menghadkan kejadian kecurian kenderaan. Di samping itu, kertas ini juga mencadangkan suatu aplikasi pemetaan jenayah yang membolehkan kita mengenal pasti kawasan yang paling berisiko untuk berlakunya kecurian kenderaan. Hasil daripada kajian ini boleh digunakan oleh pihak berkuasa tempatan dan juga pihak pengurusan perancangan sumber dalaman syarikat insurans untuk merancang strategi yang berkesan bagi mengurangkan kecurian kenderaan. Secara tidak langsung, kertas kerja ini telah membina satu jalan pintar dengan menggabungkan maklumat yang diperoleh daripada pangkalan data Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia dan syarikat-syarikat insurans untuk merintis kepada pembinaan peta lokasi kecurian kenderaan di Malaysia.

Kata kunci: Analisis reruang; binomial negatif; jenayah; kecurian kenderaan; pemetaan

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*Corresponding author; email: mahir@ukm.edu.my