Climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) focus on different trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic development. RCPs outline possible futures based on varying levels of greenhouse gas concentrations by 2100, while SSPs provide narratives of how societal factors like population growth and technological progress might evolve. Combined, they offer a range of scenarios to understand potential climate futures under different policy and development choices.
In contrast, projections based on Global Warming Levels (GWLs) focus directly on specific increases in global mean temperature, such as +1.5°C, +2.0°C, +3.0°C and +4.0°C, relative to pre-industrial levels. GWLs assess the impacts and risks associated with reaching these temperature thresholds, providing clear targets for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. While RCPs/SSPs explore the pathways leading to various climate outcomes, GWLs emphasize the consequences of specific temperature increases, making them crucial for setting and evaluating climate goals.
Using Global Warming Levels (GWLs) is often more preferable because they provide clear, direct targets for climate policy and action. By focusing on specific temperature thresholds, such as +1.5°C or +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, GWLs offer a straightforward way to assess the impacts of climate change and the urgency of mitigation efforts. This clarity helps policymakers, scientists, and the public understand the concrete risks and necessary actions to prevent dangerous levels of warming.
Moreover, GWLs facilitate international agreements and commitments, such as the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C. By setting specific temperature goals, GWLs make it easier to track progress and measure the effectiveness of global and national climate policies. This targeted approach enhances global cooperation and drives concerted efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement adaptation strategies to cope with the anticipated impacts of climate change.
The projections shown in this web portal are computed based on the CORDEX-SEA multi-model simulations and aggregated for +1.5°C, +2.0°C, +3.0°C and +4.0°C global warming levels.