Health

INTRODUCTION

The impacts of climate change on health, especially with extreme weather under global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C, remain elusive in Malaysia. Better understanding is needed as strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on healthcare should be sensitive to within country variations.

Starting with the Muda River Basin and Kelantan River Basin, a vulnerable region to flooding, this study compares the present condition with extreme weather scenarios under global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C, to determine the excess deaths, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases that are attributable to the increased global temperature. This project also assesses the present condition of selected communicable diseases such as dengue, malaria, typhoid, cholera and leptospirosis and compares the projected change under global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C scenarios. This study evaluates the concentrations of air pollutants during heat waves using conventional weather and air quality stations, with supplementary air sensors deployed around the study areas for better spatiotemporal coverage. Present and predicted air pollutants, particularly particulate matter (PM2.5), under global warming conditions, will be used to determine the impacts of air pollutants on mortality and morbidity. Statistical and measurement data are obtained from the Ministry of Health (MOH), Department of Statistics (DOS), Department of Environment (DOE), Malaysia Meteorological Department (MMD) and data assimilated from Project 1 and 2.

A heat-health warning system (HHWS) will be developed using mortality and selected meteorological data with current and projected climate scenarios from Project 1. This HHWS will be enhanced with heat-related illness (HRI) severity from selected vulnerable populations for a health-based HRI warning system. These HRI data will be obtained through field surveys which include environmental health risk assessment.

The deliverables of this project will include identification of health risk through burden of disease, regional weather and air quality prediction, climate-driven disease predictive models, health-based HRI warning system, and adaptation strategies for community resilience will be formulated.

OBJECTIVES

The overarching aim of this project is to assess the health Impacts of Global Warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C in Kelantan and Muda River Basin. Specifically, the project aims :

To determine the vulnerable populations to weather and climate extremes under global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C.
To assess the interaction between weather and climate extremes under the global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C and air quality towards impacts on health.
To explore a climate-driven predictive model for targeted diseases.
To quantify the health impacts risk level of weather and climate extremes under global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C and formulate adaptation strategies.

METHODOLOGY

This project comprises three parts in assessing the impact of health on mortality and diseases related to climate change and extreme weather:

Part 1 – Burden of Disease from Air Pollution [include data from Climate Model Projection, Air Quality Model (WRF-CMAQ), Health, continuous air quality monitoring system (CAQMS) stations and AiRBOXSense smart sensors for continuous in-situ air quality monitoring]

Part 2 – Ecological study focusing on climate sensitive communicable diseases such as dengue, malaria, cholera, typhoid and leptospirosis as notified to the e-notification, Communicable Disease Control Information System (CDCIS), Ministry of Health Malaysia.

Part 3 – Focusing on Heat Related Illnesses. This involves Field study in selected vulnerable communities and environmental health risk assessment in both state as well as Projection of heat-related excess mortality.