Social Economic
INTRODUCTION
The weather and climate extremes (henceforth, WCE) in Malaysia has caused Malaysia RM8 billion in the last 20 years. Such a situation is expected to cause formidable impacts to the local community, and hence, to understand their sensitivity towards these impacts is vital. Four aspects of local community sensitivity that need to be concerned about are the economic, cultural, institutional, and social attributes. Hence, based on the projected changes provided by Project 2 and 3, this project will examine the community’s sensitivity due to weather and climate extremes and analyse their vulnerability and risk to the exposure of changing characteristics of extremes under global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C. These include the assessment of the socio-economic impacts, such as the losses and damages caused by the adverse impacts of weather and climate extremes on water balance, incidence of natural disasters (e.g., floods), and community’s health under the global warming. The Monte-Carlo simulation analysis method is employed to capture the probabilistic element of the weather event occurring and its severity, which will impact the magnitude of damages and losses. Ultimately, while generating a matrix on the level of risk and socio-economic losses, this project aimed to propose a new policy on adaptation strategies on global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C in Malaysia based on the community’s sensitivity towards climate change.
OBJECTIVES
The specific objectives of Project 4 are as follows:
- To determine the levels of economic sensitivity, cultural sensitivity, institutional sensitivity and social sensitivity towards impacts of weather and climate extremes under global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C.
- To estimate socio-economic losses due to flood, dry spells and health related problems resulted from the weather and climate extremes under global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C.
- To develop a predictive socio-economic model based on the assessment on impacts of exposure to weather and climate extremes under global warming 1.5°C and 2.0°C on the selected communities.
- To recommend climate adaptation strategy for minimizing losses among dwellers in impacted areas.
METHODOLOGY
At the first stage of the study, the data will be collected qualitatively through focus group discussion (FGD). The FGD will be conducted at the affected areas of Kelantan and Muda River Basins, specifically areas that were affected by floods and dry spells based on previous records and events. The FGD will be conducted among selected groups of communities in various economic sectors including farmers, villagers, housewives, etc in the identified affected areas. The qualitative data will assist the researcher to get preliminary data on the community’s sensitivity (economic, institutional, cultural, and social aspects) towards weather and climate extremes (WCE), where the qualitative data obtained will be used to strengthen the quantitative instrument development. Further, this study will conduct a cross-sectional survey on respondents chosen from selected climate change affected areas namely, community living in the flood and water stress risk area and the vulnerable health related community due to water stress, flood and heat wave. A total of 1200 respondents will be involved in this study.
This study’s instrument (questionnaire form) will be adapted from the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) framework that covers five aspects namely respondents’ demographic data, economic sensitivity, cultural sensitivity, institutional sensitivity, and social sensitivity. Economic losses and socio-economic impact will be examined using primary data collected from communities in the survey area. Information on respondent’s economic activities, and assets will be collected to assess the potential economic losses during climate shocks. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation will be performed to incorporate the probabilistic elements of the occurrence of extreme climate events in calculating expected economic losses. The socio-economic impacts to be measured at community level during the survey will be used to predict the impacts at economic sector levels for different economic activities owned by different stakeholders. Community vulnerability index (CVI) will be developed to examine the extent of risks and exposure communities face during an extreme climate event. The vulnerability index will incorporate both socio-economic and biophysical vulnerabilities of the community. Socio-economic information will be obtained through primary data collection that will also include coping mechanisms, and social support variables.
KEY PROJECT MEMBERS
DR. NIK AHMAD SUFIAN BIN BURHAN @ JAOHARI
Project Leader
Universiti Putra Malaysia
ASSOC. PROF. DR. HALIZA BINTI ABDUL RAHMAN
Co-Researcher
Universiti Putra Malaysia
PROF. DR. SHAUFIQUE FAHMI BIN AHMAD SIDIQUE
Co-Researcher
Universiti Putra Malaysia
DR. JASMIN ARIF SHAH
Co-Researcher
Universiti Putra Malaysia
DR. HAYROL AZRIL BIN MOHAMED SHAFFRIL
Co-Researcher
Universiti Putra Malaysia
DR. SAMSUL FARID SAMSUDDIN
Co-Researcher
Universiti Malaya
FORMER KEY PROJECT MEMBERS
PROF. DR. ASNARULKHADI ABU SAMAH
Former Project Leader
Universiti Putra Malaysia
ASSOC. PROF. DR. NOBAYA AHMAD
Former Co-Researcher
Universiti Putra Malaysia
COLLABORATORS
Tn HJ. TAPSIR SERIN
Agency Collaborator
MARDI
DR. ENGKU ELINI ENGKU ARIFF
Agency Collaborator
MARDI
DR. HAIRAZI RAHIM
Agency Collaborator
MARDI
STUDENTS
NORHIDAYAH BINTI MOHAMAD
PhD
Thesis title: Impacts of Climate Extreme, Adaptive Capacity and Economic Well-Being of Community in Muda River Basin, Kedah
Universiti Putra Malaysia
NURUL AMIERA BINTI KHALID
Master
Thesis title: Factors Influencing Technology Adoption towards Climate Change Impacts among Agricultural Communities in Kelantan River and Muda River Basins
Universiti Putra Malaysia
GROUP ACTIVITIES
