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Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia

54 (1) 2020 193 – 211

Perubahan Makroekonomi, Persaingan Harga Barang Pengganti dan Eksport Sawit Malaysia
Macroeconomic Changes, Competitiveness Price of Substitute Product and Malaysian Palm Oil Exports

Faculty of Economics and Management
National University of Malaysia
43600 Bangi, Selangor
MALAYSIA
Kolej Teknologi Darulnaim Cawangan
Kuala Lumpur

D-03-2 Jalan Medan Pusat Bandar 5
Seksyen 9 Bandar Baru Bangi
43650 Bandar Baru Bangi Selangor
MALAYSIA

abdullahkhairiasri@gmail.com

Faculty of Economics and Management
National University of Malaysia
43600 Bangi, Selangor
MALAYSIA

Institut Islam Hadhari
National University of Malaysia
43600 Bangi, Selangor
MALAYSIA

eychah@ukm.edu.my

Faculty of Economics and Management
National University of Malaysia
43600 Bangi, Selangor
MALAYSIA

hawati@ukm.edu.my

Abstract

Malaysia is one of the world leaders in palm oil production. The study investigates the effects of selected macroeconomic variables and price competition on the major palm oil export products, which are the crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO). The macroeconomic variables include local and world palm oil prices, palm oil production and real effective exchange rates. Meanwhile, price competition includes the price of substitute products for palm oil such as soybean oil, canola oil, sunflower oil and coconut oil. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is employed in examining the short and long run relationship among the variables for the sample spanning from year 1985 to 2016. The study provides empirical evidence that local palm oil prices, exchange rates, and prices of substitute products strongly influence Malaysian palm oil exports. Thus, initiatives toward increasing Malaysian palm oil exports should consider the stability of local palm oil prices, foreign exchange rates and prices of the substitute products to retain competitive advantage of Malaysian palm oil export. In addition, the evidence on the inverse impact of the Asian 1997/1998 and Eropean 2007/2008 crises on palm oil export suggests that Malaysia should be cautious of the Asian and global crisis signals.

Keywords

Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); Crude palm oil; palm kernel oil; price competition

Author’s Acknowledgement

Kami berterima kasih kepada Lembaga Minyak Sawit Malaysia (Malaysian Palm Oil Board - MPOB) yang membiayai penyelidikan ini melalui geran EP-2016-027 dan EP-2018-019.

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2020-5401-14
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Mohd Asri, , Rahman, , & Janor, (2020). Perubahan Makroekonomi, Persaingan Harga Barang Pengganti dan Eksport Sawit Malaysia. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 54(1), 193–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2020-5401-14

@article{mohdasri2020perubahan,
  title={Perubahan Makroekonomi, Persaingan Harga Barang Pengganti dan Eksport Sawit Malaysia},
  author={Mohd Asri, ‘Abdullah Khairi and Rahman, aisyah and Janor, Hawati},
  journal={Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia},
  volume={54},
  number={1},
  pages={193—211},
 

year={2020},
}

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