Sains Malaysiana 42(3)(2013): 325–332

Development of Analytical Probabilistic Model Parameters for Urban Stormwater Management

(Pembangunan Parameter Kebarangkalian Analisis untuk Pengurusan Air Ribut di Bandar)

Salisu Dan’azumi*

Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia

Supiah Shamsudin

Razak School of Engineering and Advanced Technology, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

54100, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Azmi Arisa

Institute of Environmental and Water Resource Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia

Received: 13 July 2011/Accepted: 1 September 2012

ABSTRACT

Analytical probabilistic models (APM) are closed form mathematical expressions for long term system’s output performance derived from the probability distribution of the system’s input variables. In order to apply the APM for urban stormwater control systems’ design, APM parameters have to be made known. These input parameters include APM parameters which are derived from the meteorological rainfall characteristics; storm depth, duration, intensity and inter-event time. This study is aimed to develop meteorological APM parameters that can be used for detention pond design in Peninsular Malaysia. Hourly rainfall data covering 10 to 40 years period were analyzed from 13 different locations spread across the Peninsular. The data were analyzed to obtain the APM parameters at different values of minimum storm separation time (MSST). The APM parameter of rainfall duration (λ) was found to range from a mean value of 0.260 h-1 for 2 h MSST to 0.04 h-1 for 24 h MSST. The APM parameter of rainfall volume (ζ) ranges from a mean value of 0.091 mm-1 for 2 h MSST to 0.038 mm-1 for 24 h MSST. Similarly, the APM parameter of rainfall intensity (β) ranges from a mean value of 0.355 h/mm for 2 h MSST to 0.504 h/mm for 24 h MSST. Finally, the APM parameter of inter-event time (ψ) ranges from a mean value of 0.025 h-1 for 2 h MSST to 0.012 h-1 for 24 h MSST. Once the APM parameters are determined for a particular area, the long term stormwater control systems’ performance can easily be determined.

Keywords: Analytical probabilistic models (APM); detention pond; meteorological characteristics; stormwater management

ABSTRAK

Model kebarangkalian analisis (APM) adalah ungkapan matematik berbentuk tertutup bagi prestasi keluaran sistem jangka panjang diterbitkan daripada taburan kebarangkalian pemboleh ubah input sistem. Untuk menggunakan aplikasi APM dalam reka bentuk sistem kawalan air-ribut bandar, parameter APM perlu diketahui. Parameter input ini termasuk parameter APM yang diterbitkan daripada ciri hujan meteorologi; kedalaman ribut, tempoh, keamatan dan masa antara-peristiwa. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan parameter APM meteorologi yang boleh digunakan untuk reka bentuk kolam tahanan di Semenanjung Malaysia. Data hujan setiap jam yang merangkumi 10 hingga 40 tahun telah dianalisis dari 13 lokasi berlainan di seluruh Semenanjung. Data dianalisis untuk mendapatkan parameter APM pada nilai masa pengasingan ribut minimum (MSST) yang berbeza. Parameter APM tempoh hujan (λ) adalah bernilai purata 0.260 jam-1 untuk 2 jam MSST ke 0.04 jam-1 untuk MSST 24 jam. Parameter APM isi padu hujan (ζ) bernilai purata antara 0.091 mm-1 untuk 2 jam MSST ke 0.038 mm-1 untuk MSST 24 jam. Begitu juga, parameter APM keamatan hujan (β) adalah antara nilai purata 0.355 jam/mm untuk 2 jam MSST ke 0.504 jam/mm untuk MSST 24 jam. Akhirnya, parameter APM antara peristiwa masa (ψ) bernilai purata 0.025 jam-1 untuk 2 jam MSST ke 0.012 jam-1 untuk 24 jam MSST. Apabila parameter APM telah ditentukan bagi kawasan tertentu, prestasi sistem kawalan air-ribut jangka panjang dapat ditentukan dengan mudah.

Kata kunci: Ciri meteorologi; model kebarangkalian analitis; penahanan kolam; pengurusan air- rebut

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*Corresponding author; email: sdanazumi@gmail.com