Sains Malaysiana 40(5)(2011): 411–417

Time Series Analysis of Surface Ozone Monitoring Records in Kemaman, Malaysia

(Analisis Siri Masa bagi Rekod Permonitoran Ozon Permukaan di Kemaman, Malaysia)

Marzuki Ismail*, Mohd Zamri Ibrahim & Tg. Azmina Ibrahim

Department of Engineering Science, Faculty of Science and Technology

Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia

Ahmad Makmon Abdullah

Department of Environmental Science, Faulty of Environmental Studies

Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43300 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 30 March 2010 / Diterima: 29 September 2010

ABSTRACT

Time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in many applications in air pollution and environmental management fields. Among the most effective approaches for analyzing time series data is the model introduced by Box and Jenkins, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). In this study we used Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model for monthly ozone data taken from an Automatic Air Quality Monitoring System in Kemaman station for the period from 1996 to 2007 with a total of 144 readings. Parametric seasonally adjusted ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,1,2)12 model was successfully applied to predict the long-term trend of ozone concentration. The detection of a steady statistical significant upward trend for ozone concentration in Kemaman is quite alarming. This is likely due to sources of ozone precursors related to industrial activities from nearby areas and the increase in road traffic volume.

Keywords: ARIMA; seasonal variation; surface ozone; time series analysis

ABSTRAK

Analisis siri masa dan model peramalan telah menjadi kaedah utama di dalam banyak aplikasi bidang pencemaran udara dan pengurusan alam sekitar. Antara kaedah paling efektif bagi menganalisis data siri masa adalah model ARIMA yang diperkenalkan oleh Box dan Jenkins. Dalam kajian ini, kami menggunakan metodologi Box dan Jenkins untuk membina model data bulanan ozon yang diperoleh dari Sistem Pemantauan Kualiti Udara Otomatik di stesen Kemaman dari 1996 hingga 2007 dengan jumlah 144 bacaan data. Model berparameter ARIMA terlaras secara bermusim (0,1,1) (1,1,2)12 telah berjaya diaplikasi bagi meramal arah aliran jangka panjang kepekatan ozon. Pengesanan secara mantap tambahan berkesan arah aliran meningkat bagi kepekatan ozon di Kemaman adalah agak membimbangkan. Ini berkemungkinan besar disebabkan oleh pelopor-pelopor ozon yang berkaitan dengan aktiviti perindustrian di kawasan berhampiran dan juga pertambahan jumlah lalu lintas jalan.

Kata kunci: Analisis siri masa; ARIMA; ozon permukaan; variasi bermusim

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: marzuki@umt.edu.my