Sains Malaysiana 41(11)(2012): 1325–1334

Near Future Climate Projections over the Red River Delta of Vietnam using

the Regional Climate Model Version 3

(Unjuran Iklim Masa Hadapan di Kawasan Delta Red River, Vietnam

Menggunakan Regional Climate Model Versi 3)

Thanh Ngo-Duc*, Quang-Trung Nguyen, Tuan-Long Trinh, Thanh-Hang Vu & Van-Tan Phan

Department of Meteorology, Hanoi University of Science, Vietnam National University

334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam

Van-Cu Pham

International Centre for Advanced research on Global Change

Vietnam National University, 144, Xuan Thuyst, Cau Giay, Ha Noi, Vietnam

Diserahkan: 24 Oktober 2011 / Diterima: 7 Jun 2012

ABSTRACT

This study presents a preliminary attempt to assess future climate conditions in the Red River Delta (RRD) region. Outputs of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3) are dynamically downscaled using the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). Numerical experiments and analysis are realized for the baseline 1980-1999 and the future 2030-2049 periods with the A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. We first examine the capability of the model in simulating the 20 years mean climate. Temperature and precipitation outputs for the baseline period are compared with observations at the 17 selected meteorological stations in RRD. Results show that temperature patterns are fairly well reproduced but with systematic cold biases. Precipitation is also well simulated during winter - spring and largely underestimated during summer - autumn. Estimation of the future changes of temperature and precipitation as compared to those of the baseline period reveals that annual temperature of the 2030-2049 appears to be warmer than the baseline temperature of about 1.4±0.2ºC. Summer temperature is likely to increase faster than winter temperature in the future. We also notice that precipitation generally decreases throughout the RRD region except the future JJA rainfall projected by the A2 scenario.

Keywords: Climate change; dynamical downscaling; Red River Delta; regCM3

ABSTRAK

Kajian ini adalah usaha awal menilai keadaan iklim masa hadapan di kawasan Delta Red River (RRD). Output Model Community Climate System versi 3.0 (CCSM3) diturunskalakan secara dinamik menggunakan Regional Climate Model versi 3 (RegCM3). Eksperimen berangka dan analisis dijalankan bagi tempoh garis dasar 1980-1999 dan masa hadapan 2030-249 dengan senario pembebasan A1B dan A2. Kebolehan model mensimulasi iklim purata bagi tempoh 20 tahun garis dasar dinilai. Output suhu dan presipitasi bagi tempoh garis dasar dibandingkan dengan data cerapan dari 17 stesen meteorologi terpilih di RRD. Keputusan menunjukkan suhu disimulasi dengan baik tetapi dengan kepincangan sejuk yang sistematik. Presipitasi disimulasi dengan baik semasa musim sejuk and bunga tetapi kurang anggaran pada musim panas dan luruh. Anggaran perubahan masa depan suhu dan presipitasi yang dibandingkan dengan nilai bagi tempoh garis dasar menunjukkan suhu tahunan bagi tempoh 2030-2049 adalah lebih panas 1.4 ± 0.2oC dari pada tempoh garis dasar. Suhu musim panas berkemungkinan meningkat pada kadar yang lebih cepat berbanding suhu musim sejuk pada masa akan datang. Presipitasi secara umumnya menurun bagi keseluruhan kawasan RRD kecuali JJA masa akan datang bagi senario A2.

Kata kunci: Penurunskalaan dinamik; perubahan iklim; Red River Delta; regCM3

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: ngoducthanh@vnu.edu.vn