Sains Malaysiana 46(10)(2017): 1997–2005

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2017-4610-39

 

Incorporating Intelligence into Exit Choice Model for Typical Evacuation

(Penggabungan Kecerdasan kepada Model Pilihan Keluar untuk Pemindahan Tipikal)

 

MOHAMMED SHUAIB^1* & ZARITA ZAINUDDIN²

 

¹College of Shari’a and Islamic Studies in Al Ahsaa, Department of Computer Sciences, Al-Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), AlAhsaa 31982, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

 

²School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

 

Diserahkan: 30 Ogos 2016/Diterima: 13 Februari 2017

 

ABSTRACT

Integrating an exit choice model into a microscopic crowd dynamics model is an essential approach for obtaining more efficient evacuation model. We describe various aspects of decision-making capability of an existing rule-based exit choice model for evacuation processes. In simulations, however, the simulated evacuees clogging at exits have behaved non-intelligently, namely they do not give up their exits for better ones for safer egress. We refine the model to endow the individuals with the ability to leave their exits due to dynamic changes by modifying the model of their excitement resulted from the source of panic. This facilitates the approximately equal crowd size at exits for being until the end of the evacuation process, and thereby the model accomplishes more optimal evacuation. For further intelligence, we introduce the prediction factor that enables higher probability of equally distributing evacuees at exits. A simulation to validate the contribution is performed, and the results are analyzed and compared with the original model.

 

Keywords: Decision making; evacuation; exit choice; prediction

 

ABSTRAK

Mengintegrasikan model pilihan keluar kepada model dinamik mikroskopik ramai adalah pendekatan penting untuk mendapatkan model pemindahan yang lebih cekap. Kami menerangkan pelbagai aspek keupayaan membuat keputusan bagi model pilihan keluar berasaskan peraturan sedia ada untuk proses pemindahan. Namun, dalam simulasi, mangsa yang dipindahkan tersangkut di pintu keluar telah bertindak tidak bijak, iaitu mereka tetap dengan jalan keluar mereka tanpa mendapatkan jalan keluar yang lebih selamat. Kami memperbaiki model untuk memberikan individu keupayaan untuk keluar disebabkan oleh perubahan dinamik dengan mengubah model keterujaan mereka yang dihasilkan daripada sumber panik. Ini memudahkan orang ramai di pintu keluar sehingga proses pemindahan berakhir dan dengan demikian model itu dapat melakukan pemindahan lebih optimum. Untuk kecerdasan lanjut, kami memperkenalkan faktor ramalan yang membolehkan kebarangkalian yang lebih tinggi untuk sama-sama mengagihkan mangsa di pintu keluar. Satu simulasi untuk pengesahan sumbangan dijalankan dan keputusan dianalisis dan dibandingkan dengan model asal.

 

Kata kunci: Membuat keputusan; pemindahan; pilihan keluar; ramalan

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: mh_shuaib@yahoo.com