Sains Malaysiana 50(12)(2021): 3467-3479

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2021-5012-01

Impacts of Sea Temperature Rise on Rastrelliger kanagurta Potential Fishing Grounds in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off South China Sea

(Kesan Kenaikan Suhu Laut terhadap Kawasan Perikanan Berpotensi Rastrelliger kanagurta pada Zon Ekonomi Eksklusif (EEZ) di Laut China Selatan)

KAMARUZZAMAN, Y.N.^1,2, MUSTAPHA, M.A.^1,* & GHAFFAR, M.A.³

¹Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

²Faculty of Fisheries and Food Science, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21300 Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu Darul Iman, Malaysia

³Institute of Marine Biotechnology, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21300 Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu Darul Iman, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 23 Oktober 2020/Diterima: 18 Mac 2021

ABSTRACT

The Indian mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta) is one of the most commercially crucial epipelagic scombrid where it is caught in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off the South China Sea (SCS). High demand for fisheries resources is a challenge for fishers to achieve optimal fish landing targets. By using R. kanagurta catch data, and high resolution satellite data of chl-a and SST (MODIS-Aqua) and SSH (AVISO) from 2018 together with boosted regression tree (BRT) model, this study aims to determine the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) increase on the potential catch of R. kanagurta based on temperature projection of IPCC-AR5-RCPs scenarios. BRT modelling result indicated that during the northeast monsoon (NEM), at elevated temperature of 1.80 and 2.60 ℃ showed that the potential fishing grounds of R. kanagurta increase in the area especially in the northern part of the EEZ. However, at elevated temperature of 3.30 ℃, the potential fishing areas was found to decrease along the coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Meanwhile, during southwest monsoon (SWM) and inter-monsoon transition, at temperature rise of 1.80, 2.60 and 3.30 °C showed a significant reduction in the potential fishing area of the R. kanagurta potential fishing grounds especially along the coast of the EEZ off SCS. Results indicated that changes in SST influenced suitability of habitat which affected the distribution of R. kanagurta. Understanding the impacts of temperature increase would contribute towards future sustainable fisheries resource management strategies.

Keywords: Boosted regression trees; exclusive economic zone; increase sea surface temperature; potential fishing ground; Rastrelliger kanagurta

ABSTRAK

Ikan kembung India (Rastrelliger kanagurta) adalah ikan epipelagik yang merupakan salah satu sumber marin komersil yang terpenting di perairan Zon Ekonomi Eksklusif (ZEE) Malaysia di Laut China Selatan (LCS). Permintaan tinggi terhadap sumber perikanan merupakan cabaran bagi nelayan untuk mencapai sasaran pendaratan ikan yang optimum. Kajian ini menggunakan data tangkapan ikan R. kanagurta, data satelit resolusi tinggi bagi klorofil-a (chl-a) dan suhu permukaan laut (SST) (MODIS-Aqua) serta ketinggian permukaan laut SSH (AVISO) pada tahun 2018 bersama model ‘boosted regression trees’ (BRT), bagi mendapatkan perhubungan antara taburan ikan R. kanagurta dengan faktor oseanografi dan menentukan taburan ikan R. kanagurta di perairan ZEE di LCS berdasarkan kenaikan suhu permukaan laut (SST) menggunakan pengunjuran suhu IPCC-AR5-RCPs. Hasil pemodelan BRT menunjukkan bahawa semasa monsun timur laut, kenaikan suhu 1.80 dan 2.60 ℃ menunjukkan bahawa kawasan potensi penangkapan ikan R. kanagurta meningkat terutamanya di bahagian utara ZEE. Namun, pada kenaikan suhu 3.30 ℃, kawasan penangkapan ikan yang berpotensi di zon tangkapan didapati berkurang di sepanjang perairan pantai di Semenanjung Malaysia. Sementara itu, semasa monsun barat daya dan monsun peralihan, pada kenaikan suhu 1.80, 2.60 dan 3.30 ℃ menunjukkan penurunan yang signifikan di kawasan potensi penangkapan ikan R. kanagurta terutamanya di sepanjang perairan pantai ZEE di LCS. Hasil menunjukkan bahawa perubahan dalam SST mempengaruhi kesesuaian habitat yang mempengaruhi taburan ikan R. kanagurta. Memahami kesan peningkatan suhu dapat menyumbang kepada strategi pengurusan sumber perikanan yang lebih lestari pada masa depan.

Kata kunci: 'Boosted regression trees'; kawasan potensi penangkapan ikan; kenaikan suhu permukaan laut; Rastrelliger kanagurta; zon ekonomi eksklusif

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: muzz@ukm.edu.my