Sains Malaysiana 50(3)(2021): 629-644

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2021-5003-06

Long Term Trend Analysis of Upstream and Middle-Stream River in Langat Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

(Analisis Tren Jangka Panjang Huluan dan Aliran Tengah Sungai di Lembangan Langat, Selangor, Malaysia)

SITI HAWA MOHD YUSOFF^1,2, FIRDAUS MOHAMAD HAMZAH¹*, OTHMAN JAAFAR¹ & HAZRINA TAJUDIN¹

¹Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

²Department of Science and Biotechnology, Faculty of Engineering and Life Sciences, Universiti Selangor, 45600 Bestari Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 27 Mei 2020/Diterima: 8 Ogos 2020

ABSTRACT

The present study investigates the trend in long term monthly streamflow of Sungai Lui (upstream) and Sungai Kajang (middle-stream) of the Sungai Langat Basin located in Selangor, Malaysia. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Method (ITM) tests were utilized to assess the trends at the two stations. The trend free pre-whitening (TFPW) and variance correction (VC) tests were used to assess the effects of serial correlation on the established trend, and Sen’s slope estimator was used to assess the magnitude of streamflow. Based on Sen’s Slope estimator results, the trend magnitude for Lui station is very small compared to the Kajang station. The Kajang station shows the highest increase in trend magnitude for November. The results of TFPW and VC trend tests showed that the most significant increasing trend of months occurred at Kajang station, while the less increasing significant trend of months occurred at Lui station. It can be concluded that similar trend results were obtained when the modified Mann-Kendall and ITM were applied to the same data for Sungai Lui and Sungai Kajang. The study found that there is a significant difference in terms of trend and magnitud between upstream and middle-stream.

Keywords: Innovative trend method; Mann-Kendall; Sen’s slope; trend free pre-whitening; variance correction

ABSTRAK

Kajian dilakukan terhadap tren aliran bulanan jangka panjang bagi Sungai Lui (aliran hulu) dan Sungai Kajang (aliran tengah) di Lembangan Sungai Langat yang terletak di Selangor, Malaysia. Ujian Mann-Kendall (MK) dan Kaedah Inovatif Tren (ITM) digunakan untuk menilai tren aliran di kedua-dua stesen tersebut. Ujian pra-pemutihan bebas tren (TFPW) dan pembetulan varians (VC) digunakan untuk menilai kesan korelasi bersiri pada tren dan penganggar cerun Sen digunakan untuk menilai magnitud aliran sungai. Berdasarkan hasil penganggar cerun Sen, magnitud tren untuk stesen Lui sangat kecil berbanding dengan stesen Kajang. Stesen Kajang menunjukkan peningkatan tren magnitud tertinggi untuk bulan November. Hasil ujian tren TFPW dan VC menunjukkan bahawa peningkatan tren bulanan yang paling ketara berlaku di stesen Kajang, sementara peningkatan tren bulanan yang kurang ketara berlaku di stesen Lui. Ia dapat disimpulkan bahawa hasil keputusan tren yang sama diperoleh apabila kaedah modifikasi Mann-Kendall dan ITM diterapkan pada data yang sama untuk Sungai Lui dan Sungai Kajang. Kajian ini mendapati bahawa terdapat perbezaan yang signifikan daripada segi tren dan magnitud aliran di antara aliran hulu dan aliran tengah.

Kata kunci: Cerun Sen; kaedah innovatif tren; Mann-Kendall; pembetulan varians; ujian tren pra-pemutihan

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: fir@ukm.edu.my