Keywords: GMDH; hyperbolic tangent; PCA; radial basis; ungauged basin

ABSTRAK

Antara tugas yang paling kerap dan penting bagi ahli hidrologi ialah memberikan anggaran ketepatan yang tinggi untuk pemboleh ubah hidrologi yang boleh dipercayai. Ini adalah sangat penting untuk projek penilaian risiko banjir, pembangunan tenaga air dan untuk pengurusan sumber air yang cekap. Pada masa ini, pendekatan Kaedah Pengendalian Data (GMDH) telah banyak digunakan dalam sektor pemodelan hidrologi. Namun, secara perbandingan, model tersebut tidak banyak digunakan untuk anggaran pemboleh ubah hidrologi di lembangan yang tiada data. Dalam kajian ini, model GMDH yang diubah suai (MGMDH) dikembangkan untuk memperbaiki prestasi model GMDH dalam menganggar pemboleh ubah hidrologi di lokasi yang tiada data. Model MGMDH terdiri daripada empat fungsi pemindahan yang merangkumi polinomial, hiperbolik tangen, sigmoid dan asas radial untuk anggaran pemboleh ubah hidrologi di lembangan yang tiada data; serta; ia menggabungkan Analisis Komponen Utama (PCA) dalam model GMDH. Tujuan PCA adalah untuk mengurangkan kerumitan model GMDH; Sementara itu, pelaksanaan empat fungsi pemindahan adalah untuk meningkatkan prestasi anggaran model GMDH. Untuk menilai keberkesanan model yang dicadangkan, 70 lembangan dari lokasi di seluruh Semenjung Malaysia telah dipilih. Kajian perbandingan mengenai prestasi dilakukan antara model MGMDH dan GMDH serta model lain yang digunakan secara meluas di kawasan taksiran kuantitatif banjir di lembangan yang tiada data yang dikenali sebagai Regresi Linear (LR), Regresi Bukan Linear (NLR) dan Rangkaian Neural Buatan (ANN). Hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan bahawa model MGMDH memiliki anggaran terbaik dengan ketepatan yang tertinggi berbanding semua model yang diuji. Oleh itu, dapat disimpulkan bahawa model MGMDH adalah instrumen yang kuat dan cekap untuk anggaran kuantil banjir di lembangan yang tiada data.

Kata kunci: Asas radial; GMDH; hiperbolik tangen; lembangan tiada data; PCA

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: basribdy@uitm.edu.my