Sains Malaysiana 52(3)(2023): 705-721

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2023-5203-03

The Impact of Land-Use and Climate Change on Water and Sediment Yields in Batanghari Watershed, Sumatra, Indonesia

(Kesan Penggunaan Tanah dan Perubahan Iklim terhadap Hasil Air dan Sedimen di Kawasan Tadahan Batanghari, Sumatra, Indonesia)

IWAN RIDWANSYAH¹, APIP APIP^1,4, HENDRO WIBOWO¹, ALDIANO RAHMADYA¹, SUSIWIDIYALIZA SUSIWIDIYALIZA², UNGGUL HANDOKO³, FAJAR SETIAWAN¹ & NURYA UTAMI⁴

¹Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources-National Research and Innovation Agency Indonesia

²Batanghari Watershed Management Center and Protected Forest

³Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere - National Research and Innovation Agency

⁴Asia Pasific Center for Ecohydrology

Diserahkan: 30 Jun 2022/Diterima: 2 Februari 2023

Abstract

The Batanghari River flows from the province of West Sumatra into the West Coast of Jambi, with the main river extending up to 870 km. Also, the Batanghari watershed Land use changes have shown a decreasing forest cover and an increasing agricultural area. Therefore, this study aims to calculate the impact of land use and climate change on water and sediment yield using Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological modeling. Land-use change analysis was performed with projections in 2040 while, near future and future climate projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (R.C.P.) 4.5 and 8.5 were used for global climate change scenarios. The results show a changing pattern of growing agricultural area and decreasing forest area in 1990, 1997, 2005, 2015, and 2040. SWAT hydrological model used for the simulation was calibrated automatically with SWAT-CUP and the results were validated on good criteria. The sensitivity analysis results showed that effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium (CH_K2) and Base flow alfa factor (Alfa_BF) formed the most sensitive parameters for discharge. Furthermore, the model simulation showed an increase in surface runoff and a decrease in lateral flow and base flow due to land-use changes, which increased sediment loading over time. The impact of climate change on water and sediment yield increased the average flow discharge ratio, resulting in more frequent droughts and floods events.

Keywords: Future climate; future landuse; sediment yield; SWAT model; water yield

Abstrak

Sungai Batanghari mengalir dari wilayah Sumatera Barat ke Pantai Barat Jambi, dengan sungai utama memanjang hingga 870 km. Selain itu, perubahan guna tanah kawasan tadahan Batanghari telah menunjukkan penutupan hutan yang semakin berkurangan dan kawasan pertanian yang semakin meningkat. Oleh itu, kajian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung kesan penggunaan tanah dan perubahan iklim terhadap air dan hasil sedimen menggunakan pemodelan hidrologi Alat Penilaian Tanah dan Air (SWAT). Analisis perubahan guna tanah telah dilakukan dengan unjuran pada tahun 2040 manakala unjuran iklim terdekat dan masa hadapan di bawah Representative Concentration Pathway (R.C.P.) 4.5 dan 8.5 digunakan untuk senario perubahan iklim global. Hasil kajian menunjukkan perubahan corak kawasan pertanian yang semakin meningkat dan kawasan hutan yang semakin berkurangan pada tahun 1990, 1997, 2005, 2015 dan 2040. Model hidrologi SWAT yang digunakan untuk simulasi telah ditentukur secara automatik dengan SWAT-CUP dan hasilnya telah disahkan berdasarkan kriteria yang baik. Keputusan analisis kesensitifan menunjukkan bahawa kekonduksian hidraulik yang berkesan dalam aluvium saluran utama (CH_K2) dan faktor alfa aliran asas (Alfa_BF) membentuk parameter yang paling sensitif untuk nyahcas. Tambahan pula, simulasi model menunjukkan peningkatan dalam air larian permukaan dan penurunan dalam aliran sisi dan aliran asas akibat perubahan guna tanah yang meningkatkan beban sedimen dari semasa ke semasa. Kesan perubahan iklim terhadap air dan hasil sedimen meningkatkan nisbah pelepasan aliran purata, mengakibatkan kejadian kemarau dan banjir yang lebih kerap.

Kata kunci: Guna tanah masa hadapan; hasil air; hasil sedimen; iklim masa depan; model SWAT

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^*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: iwan017@brin.go.id