Sains Malaysiana 48(11)(2019): 2297–2306

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2019-4811-01

 

Practical Predictability of the 17 December 2014 Heavy Rainfall Event over East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia using WRF Model

(Kebolehramalan Praktikal Peristiwa Hujan Lebat pada 17 Disember 2014 di Pantai Timur Semenanjung Malaysia menggunakan Model WRF)

 

WAN MAISARAH WAN IBADULLAH^1,2, FREDOLIN TANGANG*¹, LIEW JUNENG¹ & AHMAD FAIRUDZ JAMALUDDIN^1,2

 

¹Centre for Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

 

²Malaysian Meteorological Department, Jalan Sultan, 46667 Petaling Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

 

Received: 31 March 2019/Accepted: 15 August 2019

 

ABSTRACT

An investigation on the practical predictability aspects of heavy rainfall event in the east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia was carried out by simulating the 17 December 2014 episode using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The WRF model was configured with three nested domains of 36 km, 12 km, and 4 km horizontal resolution for 36 h simulations. It was found that the cumulative rainfall amount and the location of the heavy rainfall centre are sensitive to the choices of Cumulus Parameterisation Scheme (CPS). The experiment with a resolution of 4 km that used the multiscale Kain-Fritsch for the outer domains and no cumulus scheme in the inner domain reasonably well simulated the case. Further analysis suggests that the CPS and initialisation gave larger impact to the forecast quality compared to boundary conditions. Grid resolution contributed the least error.

 

Keywords: Cumulus schemes; East Coast Peninsular Malaysia; heavy rainfall episode; practical predictability; WRF model

 

ABSTRAK

Kajian ke atas kebolehramalan praktikal peristiwa hujan lebat di Pantai Timur Semenanjung Malaysia dilakukan dengan mensimulasi episod hujan lebat pada 17 Disember 2014 menggunakan model berangka Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). Konfigurasi model WRF adalah tiga domain tersarang dengan resolusi mendatar 36 km, 12 km dan 4 km. Simulasi dijalankan bagi tempoh 36 jam bermula pada 12 UTC 16 Disember 2014 sehingga 00 UTC 18 Disember 2014. Daripada segi kebolehramalan praktikal, kajian ini mendapati keamatan hujan terkumpul dan lokasi pusat hujan lebat bergantung kepada pemilihan skim pemparameteran kumulus. Model WRF dengan resolusi 4 km dan gabungan skim kumulus berbilang skala Kain-Fritsch untuk dua domain terluar dan tanpa skim kumulus untuk domain dalam berupaya untuk mensimulasikan kejadian tersebut dengan baik. Kajian juga mendapati perubahan skim kumulus diikuti dengan syarat awal memberikan kesan yang lebih besar terhadap kualiti ramalan berbanding syarat sempadan. Manakala kesan resolusi grid menunjukkan ralat yang paling kecil.

 

Kata kunci: Episod hujan lebat; kebolehramalan praktikal; model WRF; Pantai Timur Semenanjung Malaysia; skim kumulus

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*Corresponding author; email: tangang@ukm.edu.my