Sains Ma1aysiana 26(2): 53-63 (1997)                                                                                          Pengajian Kuantitatif/

                                                                                                                                                                Quantitative Studies

Kesan Pilihanraya terhadap Pasaran Saham

(Influence of elections on the stock market)

Khairul Anuar Bin Mohd Ali, Zaildi Bin Isa

Program Sains Aktuasi

Fakulti Sains Matematik

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor D.E.

Ahmad Mahir Bin Razali

Jabatan Statistik

Fakulti Sains Matematik

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor D.E.

ABSTRAK

Tujuan kajian ini dibuat adalah untuk menguji sama ada wujudnya hubungan antara pilihanraya dengan pasaran saham. Kajian ini juga cuba menentukan bila ia berlaku sama ada sebelum atau selepas pilihanraya dan menentukan tempoh sebenar ia betul-betul berkesan. Kaedah yang digunakan melibatkan penggunaan model siri masa yang dikenali sebagai model "intervention". Model intervention ini merupakan satu model khas siri masa yang melibatkan siri output dan siri input serta cuba melihat korelasi silang antara kedua-dua siri tersebut. Hasil kajian menunjukkan wujudnya hubungan secara bererti antara pilihanraya dengan pasaran saham pada tahun 1990 tetapi hubungan yang tidak bererti bagi pilihanraya pada tahun 1978, 1982 dan 1986 dengan pasaran saham. Penemuan bagi tahun 1990 ini menyokong kajian-kajian lepas yang pernah dilakukan oleh beberapa orang penyelidik lain.

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research is to determine the relationship between the elections and the stock market. This research is also aimed to determine whether it occurs before or after the election period and to determine the duration that it is most significant. The methodology that is used involves the application of the time series model which is known as the intervention model. This is a special time series model that involved the input and the output series which tries to observe the cross correlation between these two series. The study has shown that there is a significant relationship between the elections and the stock market in 1990. However, there was no similar significant relationship in the 1978, 1982 and 1986 elections. The finding for the year 1990 supports the studies done by other researchers.

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