Sains Ma1aysiana 26(2): 65-81 (1997)                                                                                          Pengajian Kuantitatif/

                                                                                                                                                                Quantitative Studies

 

A Study of Exposure to Accidents at Small Roundabouts

 

 

Kamarulzaman Bin Ibrahim

Department of Statistics

Faculty of Mathematical Sciences

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

43600 UKM Bangi, Se1angor D.E. Malaysia

 

 

ABSTRACT

 

Traffic engineers often used the observed number of accidents to evaluate the safety of a particular site. However, if one were to compare a site with another in terms of safety, the use of accident frequency will be of a limited value since no account is taken of exposure to risk. In this study, three different measures of exposure to accidents at small roundabouts were compared. The first measure is the total number of traffic entering the roundabout. The other two measures are the product of cross flows at conflict points and the square root of the product of cross flows at conflict points. In modelling these measures of exposure in relation to accidents, generalised linear modelling technique was used. No conclusive answer was found on the most appropriate measure of exposure.

 

ABSTRAK

 

Jurutera trafik selalu menggunakan bilangan kemalangan yang dicerap untuk menilai keselamatan sesuatu lokasi. Bagimanapun, jika seseorang itu ingin membandingkan sesuatu lokasi dengan lokasi yang lain dari sudut keselamatan, penggunaan kekerapan kemalangan adalah terhad kerana pendedahan terhadap risiko kemalangan tidak diambil kira. Dalam kajian ini, perbandingan dibuat terhadap tiga sukatan pendedahan kepada kemalangan di bulatan kecil. Sukatan yang pertama ialah jumlah trafik yang masuk ke bulatan kecil. Dua sukatan lagi ialah hasil darab aliran silang di titik konflik dan punca kuasa dua hasil darab aliran silang di titik konflik. Dalam pemodelan sukatan pendedahan ini berhubung dengan kemalangan, teknik model linear teritlak digunakan. Tiada jawapan yang muktamad didapati tentang sukatan pendedahan yang paling sesuai.

 

 

RUJUKAN/REFERENCES

 

Baker, R.J. & Neider, J.A. 1978. The Glim System Release 3 Manual (Harpenden, Rothamstead Experimental Station).

Chapman, R.A. 1971. Accident risk at intersections. Proceedings of New Zealand Roading Symposium 1: 193-197.

Chapman, R.A. 1973. The concept of exposure. Accident Analysis and Prevention 5: 95-110.

Dobson, A.J. 1990. An Introduction to Generalised Linear Models, First Edition London Chapman and Hall.

Colgate, M.G. & Tanner, J. C. 1967. Accident at Rural Three-Way Junctions. RRL Report LR87, Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne.

Hanson, S. J. & Wilson, C.D.L 1984. The Safety of Small Roundabouts in Newcastle upon Tyne. Unpublished Internal Report by Transport Operations Research Group, University of Newcastle upon Tyne in collaboration with Tyne and Wear County Council.

Institution of Highways and Transportation with the Department of Transport 1987. Roads and Traffic in Urban Areas. Institute of Highways and Transportation.

Jadaan, K.S. & Nicholson, A. J. 1992. Relationships between road accidents and      Traffic flows in an Urban Network. Traffic Engineering and Control, 33(9): 507-511.

Leong, H.J.W. 1973. Relationship between accidents and Traffic Volumes at Urban Intersections. Australian Road Research 5(9): 72-82.

Maycock, G. 1984. Accidents at 4-arm Roundabouts. TRRL LR 1120. Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne.

McCullagh, P. & Neider, J.A. 1989. Generalised Linear Models, Second Edition London: Chapman and Hall.

Payne, C. D. (ed.) 1985. The Glim System Release 3.77 Manual. Oxford: Numerical Algorithms Group.

Phillips, G. 1979. Accuracy of annual traffic flow estimates from short period counts,           TRRL Laboratory Report SR 514. Transport and Road Research Laboratory. Crowthorne.

Silcock, D. T., Barrell, J. & Ghee, C. 1991. The measurement of changes in road safety Traffic Engineering and Control 32(3): 120-129.

Silcock, D. T. & Worsey, G. M. 1982). Relationships between Accident Rates, Road Characteristics and Traffic on two Urban Routes. Report no. 40, Transport Operations Research Group, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne.

Tanner, J. C. 1953. Accidents at rural three-way junctions. Journal of the Institute of the Highway Engineers.

 

 

 

sebelumnya