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http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2019-4811-01
Practical Predictability
of the 17 December 2014 Heavy Rainfall Event over East Coast of Peninsular
Malaysia using WRF Model
(Kebolehramalan Praktikal
Peristiwa Hujan Lebat pada 17 Disember 2014 di Pantai Timur Semenanjung
Malaysia menggunakan Model WRF)
WAN MAISARAH WAN IBADULLAH1,2, FREDOLIN TANGANG*1, LIEW JUNENG1 & AHMAD FAIRUDZ JAMALUDDIN1,2
1Centre for Earth
Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti
Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia
2Malaysian Meteorological
Department, Jalan Sultan, 46667 Petaling Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia
Diserahkan: 31 Mac 2019/Diterima:
15 Ogos 2019
ABSTRACT
An investigation on the
practical predictability aspects of heavy rainfall event in the east coast
states of Peninsular Malaysia was carried out by simulating the 17 December
2014 episode using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF).
The WRF model was configured with three nested domains of 36
km, 12 km, and 4 km horizontal resolution for 36 h simulations. It was found
that the cumulative rainfall amount and the location of the heavy rainfall
centre are sensitive to the choices of Cumulus Parameterisation Scheme (CPS).
The experiment with a resolution of 4 km that used the multiscale Kain-Fritsch
for the outer domains and no cumulus scheme in the inner domain reasonably well
simulated the case. Further analysis suggests that the CPS and
initialisation gave larger impact to the forecast quality compared to boundary
conditions. Grid resolution contributed the least error.
Keywords: Cumulus
schemes; East Coast Peninsular Malaysia; heavy rainfall episode; practical
predictability; WRF model
ABSTRAK
Kajian ke atas kebolehramalan
praktikal peristiwa hujan lebat di Pantai Timur Semenanjung Malaysia
dilakukan dengan mensimulasi episod hujan lebat pada 17 Disember
2014 menggunakan model berangka Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF). Konfigurasi model WRF
adalah tiga domain tersarang dengan resolusi mendatar
36 km, 12 km dan 4 km. Simulasi dijalankan bagi tempoh 36 jam bermula
pada 12 UTC 16
Disember 2014 sehingga 00 UTC 18 Disember 2014. Daripada segi kebolehramalan
praktikal, kajian ini mendapati keamatan hujan terkumpul dan lokasi
pusat hujan lebat bergantung kepada pemilihan skim pemparameteran
kumulus. Model WRF dengan resolusi 4 km dan gabungan
skim kumulus berbilang skala Kain-Fritsch untuk
dua domain terluar dan tanpa skim kumulus untuk domain dalam berupaya
untuk mensimulasikan kejadian tersebut dengan baik. Kajian juga
mendapati perubahan skim kumulus diikuti dengan syarat awal memberikan
kesan yang lebih besar terhadap kualiti ramalan berbanding syarat
sempadan. Manakala kesan resolusi grid menunjukkan ralat yang paling
kecil.
Kata kunci: Episod hujan
lebat; kebolehramalan praktikal; model WRF;
Pantai Timur Semenanjung Malaysia; skim kumulus RUJUKAN
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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: tangang@ukm.edu.my
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