Sains Malaysiana 41(11)(2012): 1355–1366

Climate Change and Variability over Malaysia: Gaps in Science and Research Information

(Perubahan dan Keragaman Iklim di Malaysia: Jurang dalam Maklumat Sains dan Penyelidikan)

Fredolin T. Tangang*, Liew Juneng, Ester Salimun, Kwan Meng Sei,

Loh Jui Le & Halimatun Muhamad

Research Centre for Tropical Climate Change System (IKLIM), Faculty of Science and Technology

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi Selangor, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 10 Februari 2012 / Diterima: 27 Jun 2012

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an overview of the current available scientific knowledge pertaining to climate change and climate variability over Malaysia. Malaysia is situated in the western part of the Maritime Continent of the Southeast Asian region. Hence, regional climate change and climate variability over this region are of central importance to the understanding of climate change in Malaysia. The latest regional climate downscaling study indicates that, depending on the emission scenario, the mean surface temperature over Malaysia would increase by 3-5oC by the end of the 21st century. The mean precipitation is projected to decrease (increase) during Northern Hemisphere winter (summer). However, future variabilities associated with regional phenomena such as the monsoon, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are largely unknown. Current knowledge on the intensity and frequency of future extreme events (drought and flood) is limited. This is also the case for regional sea level rise and long-term changes in regional seas, especially in the southern region of the South China Sea. We conclude that knowledge gaps in the science of climate change over Malaysia and the surrounding region remain wide.

Keywords: Climate change; climate variability; Maritime Continent; projection; Southeast Asia

ABSTRAK

Kertas ini merupakan ulasan mengenai status terkini pengetahuan saintifik mengenai perubahan dan keragaman iklim di Malaysia. Malaysia terletak di bahagian barat Benua Maritim, Asia Tenggara. Maka perubahan dan ragam iklim rantauan adalah penting dalam memahami perubahan iklim di Malaysia. Kajian penurunskalaan iklim rantauan menunjukkan, bergantung kepada senario pembebasan gas-gas rumah hijau dan purata suhu udara di Malaysia pada penghujung abad ke-21 diunjurkan meningkat 3-5oC. Purata kerpasan dijangka menurun (meningkat) pada musim (panas) sejuk hemisfera utara. Bagaimanapun keragaman berkaitan dengan fenomena rantauan seperti monsun, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) dan juga Madden-Julian Oscilation (MJO) sebahagian besarnya tidak diketahui. Pengetahuan terkini mengenai keamatan dan kekerapan fenomena ekstrim (kemarau dan banjir) adalah terhad. Keadaan juga adalah sama juga bagi kes peningkatan aras laut dan juga perubahan jangka panjang laut-laut sekitar, terutama di bahagian selatan Laut Cina Selatan. Disimpulkan bahawa jurang pengetahuan dalam sains perubahan iklim di Malaysia dan rantau ini masih besar.

Kata kunci: Asia Tenggara; Benua Maritim; keragaman iklim; perubahan iklim; unjuran

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: ftangang@gmail.com