Sains Malaysiana 41(11)(2012): 1411–1422

Projection of Storm Surge Climate Extreme over Sunda Shelf Based on IPCC SRES A2 Scenario

(Unjuran Iklim Melampau Pusuan Ribut di Pentas Sunda Berdasarkan Senario IPCC SRES A2)

Wah ShinHow, Halimatun Muhamad, FredolinT. Tangang & Liew Juneng*

Research Centre for Tropical Climate Change System (IKLIM),

Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi,

Selangor D.E. Malaysia

Diserahkan: 30 April 2012 / Diterima: 27 Jun 2012

ABSTRACT

The historical and future storm surge climate over the South China Sea Sunda Shelf was derived using a barotropic two dimensional model. The atmospheric forcings were obtained from the UKMO regional climate modeling system, PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), forced at the boundary by the ECHAM4 simulation output under the SRES A2 emission experiment. In general, the model simulates historical sea surface elevation characteristics satisfactory although there is a substantial underestimation for the sea level elevation at local scales. The climate change analysis suggests that the storm surge extreme over the Sunda Shelf is expected to increase along the coastal area of the Gulf of Thailand and east coast of Peninsular Malaysia in the future (2071 – 2100). The projected increment is averagely ~9% over the Sunda Shelf region by the end of the 21st century corresponding to about 5% stronger wind speed as compare to the baseline period of 1961-1990.

Keywords: Climate change; Princeton ocean model; sea level elevation; storm surge; Sunda Shelf

ABSTRAK

Iklim pusuan ribut pada masa lampau dan masa depan di Laut China Selatan telah diterbitkan dengan menggunakan model lautan barotropik berdimensi dua. Pendayaan atmosfera didapati daripada sistem model iklim serantau UKMO PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) yang dipacu dengan hasil simulasi ECHAM4 pada sempadan model di bawah eskperimen senario emisi masa depan SRES A2. Secara amnya, model ini berjaya mensimulasikan ciri-ciri ketinggian permukaan laut masa lampau walaupun model ini menganggar magnitud ketinggian permukaan laut yang lebih kecil pada skala tempatan. Dalam analisis perubahan iklim, iklim melampau pusuan ribut pada masa depan (2071-2100) di Laut China Selatan dijangka akan meningkat di sepanjang kawasan pantai Teluk Thailand dan juga pantai timur Semenanjung Malaysia. Secara puratanya, peningkatan yang diunjur di Pentas Sunda adalah kira-kira 9% pada akhir abad ke-21 sebagai tindak balas terhadap penambahan kelajuan angin kira-kira 5% berbanding dengan masa lampau iaitu tempoh masa dari tahun 1961 hingga 1990.

Kata kunci: Ketinggian permukaan laut; model laut Princeton; Pentas Sunda; perubahan iklim; pusuan ribut

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: juneng@ukm.my