Sains Malaysiana 43(1)(2014): 9–19

Decreased Sensitivity of Tree Growth to Temperature in Southeast China after

the 1976/'77 Regime Shift in Pacific Climate

(Penurunan Kepekaan Pertumbuhan Pokok terhadap Suhu di China Tenggara

selepas Peralihan Rejim 1976/'77 dalam Iklim Pasifik)

XIAOCHUN WANG¹²³*, ZONGSHAN LI⁴& KEPING MA¹

¹State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany,

Chinese Academy of Sciences, 20 Nanxincun, Xiangshan, Beijing, 100093 China

²Center for Ecological Research, Northeast Forestry University, 26 Hexing Road, Harbin 150040 China

³DendroLab, Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, USA

⁴State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China

Diserahkan: 6 Disember 2012/Diterima: 20 Mac 2013

ABSTRACT

The climatic regime shift that occurred in the North Pacific Basin during 1976/'77 have been linked to a decadal mode of climate variability, which long-term behavior could be reconstructed from tree-ring records. We analyzed radial growth patterns of five subtropical tree species in Southeast China in relation to air and sea surface temperature, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices 25 years before and after 1977. In 1953-1977, tree-ring chronologies showed higher correlations with air temperature than in 1978-2002, so that their time-series graphs showed divergence after 1977. The first principal component of the five tree-ring chronologies was significantly correlated with ENSO and PDO indices in 1978-2002, while it had no significant correlations with these variables during 1953-1977. Correlation maps of PC1, PDO and ENSO indices with surface air temperature showed different patterns before and after 1977. Based on these comparisons, altered sensitivity of tree growth to temperature in recent decades could depend on basin-wide climatic shift in the North Pacific, which either changed the effects of local climatic factors on tree growth or modified the relationships between local and regional climate.

Keyword: ENSO; PDO; temperature reconstruction; tree ring; 1976/77 regime shift

ABSTRAK

Peralihan rejim iklim yang berlaku di Lembangan Pasifik Utara semasa 1976/'77 telah dihubung kait dengan mod dekad kepelbagaian iklim, dengan kelakuan jangka masa panjangnya dapat dibina semula daripada rekod cecincin pokok. Kami menganalisis corak pertumbuhan cecincin spesies pokok subtropika di China Tenggara terhadap suhu udara dan permukaan laut, indeks Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) dan indeks El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) selama 25 tahun sebelum dan selepas 1977. Pada 1953-1977, kronologi cecincin pokok menunjukkan korelasi tinggi terhadap suhu udara berbanding tempoh 1978-2002, oleh itu graf masa-siri menunjukkan percapahan selepas 1977. Prinsip komponen pertama bagi lima kronologi cecincin pokok didapati berkorelasi secara signifikan terhadap indeks ENSO dan indeks PDO pada 1978-2002. Namun, ia tidak menunjukkan korelasi secara signifikan terhadap pemboleh ubah ini bagi tempoh 1953-1977. Peta korelasi bagi indeks PC1, PDO dan ENSO terhadap suhu permukaan udara menunjukkan corak yang berlainan sebelum dan selepas 1997. Berdasarkan perbandingan ini, sensitiviti terubah pertumbuhan pokok terhadap suhu dalam dekad kebelakangan ini mungkin bergantung kepada peralihan iklim keseluruhan lembangan di Pasifik Utara dan ia telah mengubah kesan faktor iklim tempatan terhadap pertumbuhan pokok atau mengubahsuai hubungan antara iklim tempatan dan iklim serantau.

Kata kunci: Cecincin pokok; ENSO; PDO; pembinaan semula suhu; peralihan rejim 1976/77

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*Corresponding author; email: wangxc-cf@nefu.edu.cn