Sains Malaysiana 40(8)(2011): 937–943

Evaluation of the Spatial Risk Factors for High Incidence of Dengue Fever and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Using GIS Application

(Penilaian Faktor-faktor Risiko Ruangan Bagi Kejadian Penyakit Demam Denggi dan Demam Denggi Berdarah Menggunakan Aplikasi GIS)

Aziz Shafie*

Department of Geography , Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Malaya

50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Received: 25 May 2010 / Accepted: 29 November 2010

ABSTRACT

In Malaysia, the incidence of Dengue Fever (DF) and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) have risen dramatically in the last twenty years. With the use of Geographical Information System an explanation for the spread and control of these diseases can be obtained. This study aims to develop a spatial modeling that can predict the risks for DF and DHF based on environmental factors such as physical surroundings, land use, rainfall, temperature and GIS application using logistic regression. A total of 16 variables were used in the process of spatial modeling development. At the significant level of 0.05, the results of logistic regression showed that only 10 out of 16 significant variables in the modeling process. The accuracy of the resulting model is 70.3%. A crucial feature of this study is a risk area map for incidence of DF and DHF in the study area. This study also highlights the application of spatial analysis in planning and implementing the process for the prevention and control activities of DF and DHF in Malaysia.

Keywords: Dengue fever; dengue hemorrhagic fever; geographic information system (GIS); risk mapping; spatial modeling

ABSTRAK

Di Malaysia, kejadian kes Demam Denggi (DD) dan Demam Denggi Berdarah (DBD) telah meningkat secara dramatik dalam dua puluh tahun terakhir. Dengan penggunaan Sistem Maklumat Geografi (GIS), penjelasan tentang penyebaran dan pengawalan penyakit ini boleh dilakukan. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk membangunkan model ruangan yang dapat meramalkan risiko kejadian penyakit DF dan DBD berdasarkan faktor-faktor persekitaran seperti persekitaran fizikal, guna tanah, hujan, suhu dan aplikasi GIS menggunakan kaedah regreasi logistik. Sebanyak 16 pemboleh telah digunakan dalam proses pembentukan model ruangan. Pada aras signifikan 0.05, keputusan regrasi logistik mendapati hanya 10 daripada 16 pembolehubah signifikan dalam proses pembentukan model. Ketepatan model yang dihasilkan ialah sebanyak 70.3%. Hasil penting kajian ini adalah peta risiko kejadian DF dan DBD di kawasan kajian. Kajian ini juga menyoroti penggunaan analisis ruangan dalam proses perancangan dan pelaksanaan aktiviti untuk pencegahan dan kawalan penyakit DD dan DDB di Malyasia.

Kata kunci: Demam denggi; demam denggi berdarah; pemetaan risiko; permodelan ruangan: sistem maklumat geografi (GIS)

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*Corresponding author; email: azizs@um.edu.my