Sains Malaysiana 49(10)(2020): 2587-2597

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2020-4910-24

 Temperature Effect on HFMD Transmission in Selangor, Malaysia

(Kesan Suhu kepada Penularan HFMD di Selangor, Malaysia)

NURMARNI ATHIRAH ABDUL WAHID¹, JAMALUDIN SUHAILA^1,2* & AYUNA SULEKAN¹

¹Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia

²UTM Centre of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia

Received: 28 November 2019/Accepted: 16 April 2020

ABSTRACT

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a major concern for health authorities all over the world including Malaysia. In Malaysia, it has been reported that more than fifteen thousand people were affected by this disease in the year 2016 and it is suspected that climate variables play an important role in the incidence of HFMD. Previous studies showed that HFMD disease is associated with climatic factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Hence, this paper attempts to examine the pattern of HFMD and scrutinize the effect of temperature on HFMD in Selangor from the year 2010 to 2016. Correlation analysis is conducted to measure the relationship between HFMD incidence and temperature with a lag time effect. The generalized linear model (GLM) is then carried out to determine the influence of climate variables on HFMD disease in Selangor. Our findings discovered that the weekly mean temperature is significantly associated with HFMD incidence in Selangor. A comparison between models shows that HFMD with 2 weeks lag time mean temperature is the best-fitted model of HFMD in Selangor. This result helps to lay sound evidence for the implementation of strategies to reduce the effect of climate change especially temperature towards HFMD.

Keywords: Climate change; disease; generalized linear model; HFMD; temperature

ABSTRAK

Penyakit tangan, kaki dan mulut (HFMD) telah menjadi kebimbangan utama bagi pihak berkuasa kesihatan di seluruh dunia termasuk Malaysia. Di Malaysia, lebih daripada lima belas ribu orang telah dilaporkan terjejas kerana dijangkiti oleh penyakit ini pada tahun 2016 dan disyaki bahawa perubahan iklim memainkan peranan yang penting terhadap penyakit HFMD. Kajian terdahulu menunjukkan bahawa penyakit HFMD dikaitkan dengan faktor iklim seperti suhu, kelembapan dan hujan. Oleh itu, kertas ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji corak HFMD dan mengenal pasti kesan suhu terhadap penyakit HFMD di negeri Selangor bermula dari tahun 2010 sehingga 2016. Analisis korelasi dilakukan terlebih dahulu untuk mengukur hubungan antara penyakit HFMD dan suhu yang dipengaruhi oleh kesan sela masa. Model linear teritlak kemudian dilakukan untuk menentukan pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap penyakit HFMD di Selangor. Hasil kajian kami melalui perbandingan antara model menunjukkan bahawa penyakit HFMD dengan sela masa suhu sebanyak dua minggu merupakan model yang terbaik bagi HFMD di Selangor. Hasil daripada kajian ini dapat membantu bagi pelaksanaan strategi untuk mengurangkan kesan perubahan iklim seperti suhu terhadap penyakit HFMD.

Kata kunci: HFMD; model linear teritlak; penyakit; perubahan iklim; suhu

REFERENCES

Akaike, H. 1998. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike. New York: Springer. pp. 199-213.

Alsop, J., Flewett, T.H. & Foster, J.R. 1960. Hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Birmingham in 1959. British Medical Journal 2(5214): 1708-1711.

Breslow, N.E. 1984. Extra‐Poisson variation in log‐linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 33(1): 38-44.

Cardosa, M.J., Krishnan, S., Tio, P.H., Perera, D. & Wong, S.C. 1999. Isolation of subgenus B adenovirus during a fatal outbreak of enterovirus 71-associated hand, foot, and mouth disease in Sibu, Sarawak. The Lancet 354(9183): 987-991.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2011. Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD). https://www.cdc.gov/hand-foot-mouth/index.html.

Chan, L.G., Parashar, U.D., Lye, M.S., Ong, F.G.L., Zaki, S.R., Alexander, J.P., Ho, K.K., Han, L.L., Pallansch, M.A., Suleiman, A.B. & Jegathesan, M. 2000. Deaths of children during an outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Sarawak, Malaysia: Clinical and pathological characteristics of the disease. Clinical Infectious Diseases 31(3): 678-683.

Chua, K.B. & Kasri, A.R. 2011. Hand foot and mouth disease due to enterovirus 71 in Malaysia. Virologica Sinica 26(4): 221-228.

Cohen, J.I. 1998. Enterovirus and reovirus. Harrison's Principles of Internal Medicine. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Fairos, W.W.Y., Azaki, W.W.H., Alias, L.M. & Wah, Y.B. 2010. Modelling dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) outbreak using Poisson and Negative Binomial model. International Journal of Medical, Health, Biomedical, Bioengineering and Pharmaceutical Engineering 4(2): 56-61.

Gou, F., Liu, X., He, J., Liu, D., Cheng, Y., Liu, H., Yang, X., Wei, K., Zheng, Y., Jiang, X. & Meng, L. 2018. Different responses of weather factors on hand, foot and mouth disease in three different climate areas of Gansu, China. BMC Infectious Diseases 18(15): 1-10.

Hii, Y.L., Rocklöv, J. & Ng, N. 2011. Short term effects of weather on hand, foot and mouth disease. PloS ONE 6(2): e16796.

Hu, M., Li, Z., Wang, J., Jia, L., Liao, Y., Lai, S., Guo, Y., Zhao, D. & Yang, W. 2012. Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models. PloS ONE 7(6): e38978.

Huang, Y., Deng, T., Yu, S., Gu, J., Huang, C., Xiao, G. & Hao, Y. 2013. Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: A time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China. BMC Infectious Diseases 13(1): 134.

Husam, I.S., Abuhamad, A.A.B., Zainudin, S., Sahani, M. & Ali, Z.M. 2017. Feature selection algorithms for Malaysian dengue outbreak detection model. Sains Malaysiana 46(2): 255-265.

Kim, B.I., Ki, H., Park, S., Cho, E. & Chun, B.C. 2016. Effect of climatic factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease in South Korea, 2010-2013. PloS ONE 11(6): e0157500.

Kleinbaum, D.G., Kupper, L.L. & Muller, K.E. 1988. Applied Regression Analysis and Other Multivariate Methods. Belmot, CA: Duxbury Press.

Koh, W.M., Bogich, T., Siegel, K., Jin, J., Chong, E.Y., Tan, C.Y., Chen, M.I., Horby, P. & Cook, A.R. 2016. The epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease in Asia: A systematic review and analysis. The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal 35(10): e285-e300.

Lee, C.C.D., Tang, J.H., Hwang, J.S., Shigematsu, M. & Chan, T.C. 2015. Effect of meteorological and geographical factors on the epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease in island-type territory, east Asia. BioMed Research International 2015: 1-8.

Li, T., Yang, Z., Di, B. & Wang, M. 2014. Hand-foot-and-mouth disease and weather factors in Guangzhou, southern China. Epidemiology & Infection 142(8): 1741-1750.

Ma, E., Lam, T., Wong, C. & Chuang, S.K. 2010. Is hand, foot and mouth disease associated with meteorological parameter? Epidemiology & Infection 138(12): 1779-1788.

Melnick, J.L. 1984. Enteroviruses. In Viral Infections of Humans. Boston: Springer. pp. 187-251.  

Ministry of Health Malaysia. 2012. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD): Nasihat Kesihatan (Advisory) HFMD. http://www.moh.gov.my/index.php/pages/view/193.

Onozuka, D. & Hashizume, M. 2011. The influence of temperature and humidity on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Japan. Science of The Total Environment 410-411: 119-125.

Parodi, S. & Bottarelli, E. 2006. Poisson regression model in epidemiology - An introduction. Annali della Facoltà di Medicina Veterinaria di Parma 26: 25-44.

Pedan, A. 2001. Analysis of count data using the SAS system. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual SAS Users Group International Conference. California. pp. 226-247.

Podin, Y., Gias, E.L., Ong, F., Leong, Y.W., Yee, S.F., Yusof, M.A., Perera, D., Teo, B., Wee, T.Y., Yao, S.C. & Yao, S.K. 2006. Sentinel surveillance for human enterovirus 71 in Sarawak, Malaysia: Lessons from the first 7 years. BMC Public Health 6(1): 180.

Rasidi, M.N.M., Sahani, M., Othman, H., Hod, R., Idrus, S., Ali, Z.M., Choy, E.A. & Rosli, M.H. 2013. Aplikasi Sistem Maklumat Geografi untuk pemetaan reruang-masa: Suatu kajian kes denggi di Daerah Seremban, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. Sains Malaysiana 42(8): 1073-1080.

Shekhar, K., Lye, M.S., Norlijah, O., Ong, F., Looi, L.M., Khuzaiah, R., Marzuki, I., Hussein, I., Wong, S.L., Mohan, J. & Sinniah, M. 2005. Deaths in children during an outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease in Peninsular Malaysia clinical and pathological characteristics. The Medical Journal of Malaysia 60(3): 297-304.

Thanh, T.C. 2016. Effects of climate variations on hand-foot-mouth disease in Ho Chi Minh city. Vietnam Journal of Science and Technology 54(2A): 120-127.

Van, P.T., Thao, N.T.T., Perera, D., Truong, K.H., Tien, N.T.K., Thuong, T.C., How, O.M., Cardosa, M.J. & McMinn, P.C. 2007. Epidemiologic and virologic investigation of hand, foot, and mouth disease, southern Vietnam, 2005. Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(11): 1733-1741.

Wang, C., Cao, K., Zhang, Y., Fang, L., Li, X., Xu, Q., Huang, F., Tao, L., Guo, J., Gao, Q. & Guo, X. 2016. Different effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease in various climates: A spatial panel data model analysis. BMC Infectious Diseases 16(1): 233.

Wood, S.N. 2008. Fast stable direct fitting and smoothness selection for generalized additive models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 70(3): 495-518.

Xing, W., Liao, Q., Viboud, C., Zhang, J., Sun, J., Wu, J.T., Chang, Z., Liu, F., Fang, V.J., Zheng, Y. & Cowling, B.J. 2014. Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-2012: An epidemiological study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 14(4): 308-318.

*Corresponding author; email: suhailasj@utm.my